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Friday, December 29, 2006

TheSheet - England - Dec 30th



(Click the image to see the sheet in full size)

DISCUSSION
No-one should be too surprised by what you see there ...

Three home win picks in :
- Chelsea (74%) to beat Fulham @ 1.22 at Ladbrokes
- Bolton (62%) to beat Portsmouth @ 2.05 at Canbet
- Man United (71%) to beat Reading @ 1.21 at Globet

(oops - apologies for the earlier typo)

Theoretically the sheet says that both Chelsea and Manchester Utd are not at fair value (rated at 86% and 90% value respectively) when it compares their dominance to a 9 year history of similar games - as the favoured team only wins about 7/10.

But I still expect to see a huge number of accumulator bets with these two teams paired up - and it will probably payoff too.
(which makes it twice as hard to preach about value betting on the forum)

Three possible value plays in :
- Tottenham (49%) to beat Liverpool @ 2.70 at PaddyPower
- Sheff_Utd(22%) to surprise Arsenal @ 7.50 at SportingOdds
- Everton (51%) to beat Newcastle @ 2.25 at Betsson

OTHER GAMES :
Arsenal (57%) are the only away side given a good chance of winning when they travel to face Sheffield United but the price of 1.53 (at Ladbrokes) is very bad value - as the bookies anticipate plenty of money following the Gunners and have offered a lousy price.

However one other away side worth a possible punt is Wigan Athletic (40%) to win at Watford because the 2.70 price (at PaddyPower) is better than the 2.50 fair value price.

Good luck with your Saturday punts.

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