( Click the image to see the full sized sheet )
THE PICKS :
You can see that the sheet is basically betting against the teams with woeful away records this week.
There are three likely winning recommendations :
- Portsmouth to beat Charlton @ 1.60 at Interwetten
- Newcastle to beat West Ham @ 2.00 at PaddyPower
- Aston Villa to beat Watford @ 1.65 at Globet
THE VALUE :
There is plenty of green ink on the sheet as well this weekend - with six home bets looking like they're worth a play :
- Middlesbro (52%) @ 2.55 to beat Bolton (134% value)
- Newcastle (65%) @ 2.00 to beat West Ham (129% value)
- Fulham (45%) @ 2.88 to beat Tottenham (129% value)
- Liverpool (43%) @ 2.88 to beat Chelsea (124% value)
- Arsenal (43%) @ 2.60 to beat Man United (112% value)
- Portsmouth (69%) @ 1.60 to beat Charlton (110% value)
Note that technically there is also some value indicated on Watford winning away from home - but so far I've found bets on away team underdogs are not paying off - although the draw might be an option.
THE HANDICAPS :
Now - a word of warning - last week the handicap were rubbish as all five picks lost when the top sides decided to sweep the pitch with their opponents.
But with that said - here are suggestions for this week - game by game :
THE MATCH SHEET BOOKIE POSSIBLE BET
Liverpool v Chelsea -0.25 +0.00 Liverpool @ 2.00
Villa v Watford -0.75 -0.75 //
Fulham v Spurs -0.25 +0.00 Fulham @ 2.12
Middlesbro v Bolton -0.25 +0.00 Middlesbro @ 1.88
Newcastle v West Ham -1.00 -0.50 Newcastle @ 2.03
Portsmouth v Charlton -1.25 -1.00 Portsmouth @ 2.09
Reading v Sheff.U -0.50 -0.50 //
Man City v Blackburn -0.25 -0.25 //
Wigan v Everton +0.25 +0.00 Everton @ 2.01
Arsenal v Man Utd -0.25 +0.00 Arsenal @ 1.86
The Newcastle game seems to be as much as 1/2 of a goal out - and therefore is well worth a punt.
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