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Saturday, February 17, 2007

The Sheet - Italian Football - Feb 17th/18th


(Click image to see the full sheet)

With the English Premier League taking another break due to the FA Cup - we have to turn our attention to Europe and Italy in particular to find quality league action.

Most likely wins :
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The sheet has come up with four games where the home team is considered to be the most likely result - and here is a list of the sides who are at 55% or better :
- Inter Milan (74%) to beat Cagliari (1.20 @ Interwetten)
- Palermo (57%) to beat Chievo (1.57 @ Bet365)
- Lazio (61%) to beat Torino (1.62 @ BetDirect)
- Livorno (58%) to beat Messina (1.72 @ Ladbrokes)

Value punting :
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However, I'm a big fan of looking for value when taking a punt - and so I'll only have a shot on those home teams where they've got green ink in the value column - meaning that the odds being paid are better than the risk that I'm taking.

I see two home sides that are worth a shot :
- Empoli 27% @ 4.35 to beat AS Roma (117% value)
- Catania 37% @ 4.00 to beat Fiorentina (146% value)

Staking suggestion for value bets (using a Kelly Criteria variant) :
- Catania 100 units.
- Empoli 50 units.

Goood luck with your Italian Bets.

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